As the July 31, 2025, MLB trade deadline approaches, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, fierce rivals in the National League West, are poised for a high-stakes battle—not just on the field, but in the trade market. With the Padres trailing the Dodgers by 5.5 games in the division race, both teams are eyeing Kansas City Royals’ starting pitcher Seth Lugo to bolster their rotations for a postseason push. Lugo, a 35-year-old right-hander with a $45 million contract, has emerged as a prime target due to his reliability and experience, sparking intense speculation about which team will secure his services.

Lugo’s appeal is undeniable. Sporting a 3.67 ERA, 88 strikeouts, and a 1.079 WHIP across 17 starts in 2025, he has proven himself a dependable arm for the Royals, who are reportedly open to trading him as they linger three games under .500 and out of playoff contention. The Athletic’s staff described Lugo as a “late bloomer in the rotation,” noting his breakout 2024 season where he pitched over 200 innings with a 3.00 ERA, earning second place in AL Cy Young Award voting. While his advanced metrics suggest a slight dip in performance this year, his consistency makes him an attractive rental player, especially since he’s likely to opt out of his $15 million player option for 2026. For both the Padres and Dodgers, Lugo represents a critical piece to stabilize their injury-plagued rotations.

The Padres’ need for pitching depth is acute. Entering the 2025 season, San Diego planned to rely on a rotation led by Yu Darvish, Michael King, Dylan Cease, and Nick Pivetta, with the fifth spot to be determined in spring training. However, injuries disrupted this plan early. Darvish, sidelined by right elbow inflammation, missed the start of the season, while King, who emerged as the team’s ace with a 2.59 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 10 starts, landed on the injured list in May with a pinched nerve. Their absences exposed vulnerabilities in the rotation, particularly with Cease’s struggles. The right-hander, expected to be a cornerstone, has posted a disappointing 4.88 ERA across 19 starts, including 10 runs allowed in his last two outings. “I feel like I’m really close,” Cease told the San Diego Union-Tribune, expressing optimism despite his inconsistent performances.

Darvish’s recent return offers hope, but the Padres remain desperate for a reliable middle-of-the-rotation arm to complement Nick Pivetta’s solid 3.07 ERA. Lugo, who previously pitched for the Padres in 2023 with a 3.57 ERA over 146.1 innings, could seamlessly fill this gap. His familiarity with Petco Park and ability to eat innings make him an ideal fit for a team aiming to close the gap with the Dodgers and secure a playoff spot. A.J. Preller, the Padres’ president of baseball operations, has a history of bold trade moves, and posts on X from @MSports_all highlight the buzz around San Diego’s pursuit of Lugo to address their “pitching woes.”

The Dodgers, meanwhile, are not without their own rotation challenges. Despite their division lead and a 56-32 record, injuries to key pitchers like Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Roki Sasaki have strained their depth. Lugo’s recent performance against them—allowing no earned runs over 5.2 innings on June 22, 2025—underscored his value, prompting ESPN’s David Schoenfield to note the Dodgers’ wealth of hitting prospects as a potential trade advantage. A proposed mock trade by Sports Illustrated suggests Los Angeles could offer outfielder Mike Sirota and infielder Logan Wagner, both High-A prospects, to secure Lugo, a move that could solidify their rotation for a World Series defense.

The competition for Lugo is intensifying, with other teams like the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros also linked to the All-Star pitcher. For the Padres, acquiring Lugo could be a game-changer, providing the stability needed to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West and make a deep playoff run. For the Dodgers, he represents insurance against further injuries and a chance to maintain their dominance. As the trade deadline nears, the outcome of this rivalry-driven pursuit will hinge on which team can offer the Royals the most compelling package. With Lugo’s proven track record and the high stakes of the postseason, this trade battle could shape the NL West race and beyond, proving that even off the field, the Padres-Dodgers rivalry burns as fiercely as ever.