As the NFL offseason heats up, the spotlight has shifted to Sam Darnold, who is now at the center of franchise tag speculation that could have ripple effects throughout the league. With the deadline for franchise tags fast approaching, Darnold’s uncertain status is sending waves through front offices, affecting draft strategies, quarterback markets, and even potential playoff aspirations. Here’s how his situation is reshaping the landscape — and who stands to gain or lose the most.

The Case for the Franchise Tag

Darnold’s 2024 season, though limited in starting opportunities, was solid enough to spark conversations about his long-term potential. While he didn’t dazzle with MVP numbers, his poise, experience, and ability to manage games efficiently have made him a valuable commodity in a quarterback-thin league. Tagging him gives his current team one more year of control, buying time to develop a younger prospect or pursue a blockbuster trade.

Winners

1. Sam Darnold
If tagged, Darnold stands to make upwards of $30 million on a one-year deal — a massive payday for a player who’s struggled to find consistent footing. It also allows him another chance to prove his value as a starter, whether to his current team or another looking for a steady veteran presence.

2. Quarterback-needy teams picking outside the top 10
Teams like the Vikings, Raiders, or Buccaneers, who may not have access to top QB prospects in the draft, could benefit if Darnold is taken off the free-agent market. His absence boosts the value of mid-tier quarterbacks and may cause other teams to reach early in the draft, pushing elite talent at other positions down the board.

3. Rookie QBs entering the 2025 Draft
If Darnold is tagged and starts in 2025, his team may delay drafting a franchise quarterback this year — possibly shifting their focus to next year’s highly anticipated QB class. That could benefit top prospects like Shedeur Sanders or Quinn Ewers, who may face less competition in next year’s draft.

Losers

1. Teams looking for a bridge QB
Squads like the Commanders or Falcons who are in rebuild mode may be banking on a serviceable, affordable veteran like Darnold to hold the reins while they develop a rookie QB. If he’s franchised, that option disappears, forcing them to either overpay in free agency or start a rookie before they’re ready.

2. The 2024 Draft’s second-tier QBs
Names like Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. might have hoped to land in ideal bridge scenarios where they’d compete with a veteran like Darnold for the starting role. With Darnold potentially locked in, their paths to early playing time could become murkier, and their draft stock could suffer as a result.

3. Teams with cap space dreams
Franchising Darnold ties up a significant chunk of cap room — resources that could’ve been spent on bolstering offensive lines, wide receivers, or defense. For his current team, this might mean sacrificing depth in other key areas just to retain a QB who’s yet to prove himself as a true long-term solution.

Broader Draft Ramifications

If Darnold is tagged, it signals to the league that his team isn’t going all-in on a rookie QB this year. That alters draft boards across the league. A team expected to grab a quarterback at No. 3 might now pivot to a defensive standout or an elite receiver, creating a domino effect that shakes up the top 10. Other QB-needy franchises might panic and trade up, sacrificing future picks in the process.

Final Thoughts

While Sam Darnold may not be the superstar many envisioned when he was drafted No. 3 overall in 2018, his looming franchise tag decision holds the power to reshape the 2024 offseason. From rookie quarterbacks to playoff hopefuls, the NFL is watching closely — because what happens next with Darnold could change everything.