It may sound counterintuitive, but historical data suggests that it is entirely accurate. Looking at the most recent Ballon d’Or ceremony in 2021, which coincided with the postponed EURO 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Lionel Messi was the recipient while Harry Kane, Xavi, Iniesta, and Fernando Torres were barely in contention.
As of now, a few heavyweights are emerging as strong contenders for the Ballon d’Or 2024, including Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham, and Toni Kroos of Real Madrid. Slightly trailing them are Cristiano Ronaldo (Al Nassr) and Harry Kane (Bayern Munich). Overall, it seems likely that the trio from Real Madrid will dominate the top three spots for the Ballon d’Or, Ballon d’Argent, and Ballon de Bronze. Ronaldo and Kane might have a shot if Portugal or England triumphs at EURO 2024 and if these players shine individually.
However, Kane’s luck has been notoriously poor, and even the most ardent fans would find it hard to believe England could win EURO 2024. In contrast, Ronaldo might pull it off, depending on how his numerous goals for Al Nassr are evaluated by those in power. Historically, though, a player aiming for the Ballon d’Or in a year their national team wins the EURO has a 99.9% chance of falling short.
Cristiano Ronaldo is the sole exception to this rule, having won both the EURO and the Ballon d’Or in the same year. CR7 deservedly received the award after leading Portugal to the EURO 2016 title and Real Madrid to the Champions League victory in the 2015/16 season. Ultimately, the focus was more on Real’s Champions League triumph than Portugal’s EURO success when awarding the prestigious individual prize.
The Ballon d’Or has consistently eluded stars from EURO-winning teams. Most recently, in 2021, the rescheduled EURO 2020 saw Italy claim the trophy after a penalty shootout victory over England. Gianluigi Donnarumma was named the tournament’s best player, and Jorginho made UEFA’s Team of the Tournament. Yet, in the Ballon d’Or gala, Italy was left stunned as the award went to South American star Lionel Messi of Barcelona and Argentina. Robert Lewandowski of Poland and Bayern Munich finished second, while Jorginho only managed to secure third place.
In 2012, Spain won their second consecutive EURO title, with Andres Iniesta delivering stellar performances and earning the tournament’s best player accolade. However, in the Ballon d’Or ceremony, Iniesta finished third, unable to surpass his Barcelona teammate Lionel Messi, who claimed the top spot despite having fewer accolades that year. The voting percentages were strikingly disparate: Messi received 41.6% of the votes, while Iniesta garnered just 10.9%.
Even further back, in 2008, Spain won EURO 2008 under legendary coach Luis Aragones. Fernando Torres, who scored the decisive goal in the final against Germany, finished third in the Ballon d’Or voting, behind Lionel Messi and the winner, Cristiano Ronaldo. The vote counts were bafflingly far apart: Torres received 179 votes, Messi 281, and Ronaldo 446. This caused widespread surprise, frustration, and outrage, with fans taking to social media to express their discontent.
These instances highlight some of the controversies in the football world and the decade-long dominance of Messi and Ronaldo in the Ballon d’Or awards. During that period, if the award did not go to Ronaldo, it would go to Messi, and vice versa. This left other talented players like Iniesta, Xavi, and Torres, who were often overshadowed, with little consolation.
Therefore, if Bellingham, Rodri, Mbappe, or others aim for the Ballon d’Or 2024, they might not want England, Spain, or France to win the EURO. Meanwhile, in South America, players like Vinicius and Rodrygo are poised to shine, potentially leading Brazil to a Copa America victory. Should Vinicius guide Brazil to glory while Mbappe, Bellingham, and Kroos leave EURO empty-handed, the Ballon d’Or could very well go to the South American star from Real Madrid.
