The Minnesota Vikings will hold the advantage in any negotiations regarding Sam Darnold until the free agency period opens on March 10, but the quarterback will have a solid understanding of his market before then.

Experts continue to predict Darnold’s market value at around $40 million annually, which is significantly lower than it could have been if Darnold hadn’t struggled in the final two games of the season. “I agree with [Benjamin] Solak that Darnold’s value should come in around $40 million per season, with Daniel Jones‘ deal with the Giants in 2023 as a potential comp for a quarterback with one year of success,” wrote Bill Barnwell of ESPN on January 30. However, neither Barnwell nor Solak believes the Vikings will be the team to offer him that contract, citing one key reason.

“Will that [contract] come from the Vikings?” Barnwell asked. “They can afford to retain him, but that seems less likely with 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy returning from the knee injury he suffered in August.”

Sam Darnold

The Las Vegas Raiders, who hold the No. 6 pick in April’s NFL draft, are frequently mentioned by insiders as the most likely team to sign Darnold. “Darnold would also mesh with the blueprint of new head coach Pete Carroll, assuming he looks to replicate his Seattle Seahawks formula.

The 2018 No. 3 pick has the physical tools to be a high-end game manager and an occasional playmaker, one who can complement a strong running game and defense,” Kristopher Knox of Bleacher Report wrote. “Darnold is also much younger than [Russell] Wilson (36) and performed better in 2024. He’s a stronger long-term option, and the Raiders can’t bank on drafting their QB of the future this year or next.”