Red Bull’s FIA Controversy: Could 2025 Be the Year of McLaren’s Dominance?
Red Bull Racing finds itself at the center of yet another controversy as the FIA’s latest technical directive regarding front-wing flexibility threatens to derail the Austrian team’s dominance. The governing body’s decision not to impose further restrictions or tests on flexi-wings for the 2025 season has reportedly left Red Bull furious, as they had banked on stricter regulations to curb the aerodynamic advantages enjoyed by McLaren and Mercedes. With the new rules now favoring their rivals, Red Bull’s long-standing grip on Formula 1 could be slipping, paving the way for McLaren to emerge as the new frontrunner.
At the heart of the issue lies the flexing front-wing concept, which allows teams to optimize aerodynamic performance across different speed ranges. While Red Bull and Ferrari had pushed for tougher enforcement of regulations to eliminate this advantage, the FIA ultimately ruled against any additional tests, leaving Red Bull’s development efforts fruitless. This decision comes at a time when the RB21 has already faced significant correlation issues, with lead driver Max Verstappen struggling to extract consistent performance from a car that has been increasingly outpaced by McLaren and Ferrari.
Verstappen’s mid-season struggles, including a shocking ten-race winless streak, were a testament to Red Bull’s fading dominance. While the Dutchman managed to break the drought with a stellar drive in Brazil, aided by favorable weather conditions, concerns remain over whether Red Bull can regain its competitive edge. The FIA’s inaction on front-wing tests now forces Red Bull to rethink its entire aerodynamic approach—a near-impossible task given the team’s heavy investment in the RB21’s current philosophy. Meanwhile, McLaren has steadily refined its car development, introducing upgrades without major hurdles, positioning itself as the team to beat in 2025.
McLaren team principal Andreas Stella has openly stated that the team is focused on an innovative approach for the upcoming season, ensuring their development gains from mid-2023 continue into the next era. With Red Bull in crisis and Ferrari facing its own developmental uncertainties, McLaren could find itself in a dominant position similar to Red Bull’s in 2023. The Woking-based squad has been proactive in pushing for stable regulations, knowing their approach to front-wing flexibility would give them an edge. Now, with the FIA confirming that no further changes will be made, McLaren stands to benefit the most.
For Red Bull, the consequences extend beyond just 2025. Verstappen’s future with the team is now under intense speculation, with his father, Jos Verstappen, openly criticizing the team’s management and car development. The younger Verstappen has made it clear that he has no interest in fighting for anything less than a championship, and if Red Bull cannot provide him with a competitive package, a move to another top team—potentially Mercedes or Ferrari—cannot be ruled out. The 2026 regulation changes, which introduce active aerodynamics and remove DRS, will further shake up the competitive order, meaning Red Bull must address its issues swiftly to prevent an exodus of key personnel and talent.
Red Bull’s struggles in the latter half of 2024 were compounded by internal turmoil, with several key engineers departing and concerns over team leadership growing. Pierre Waché, Red Bull’s technical director, acknowledged the team’s correlation issues, stating that their development tools have led them astray, making it difficult to trust the data being fed into the car’s upgrades. With uncertainty surrounding both technical and managerial aspects of the team, Red Bull is now facing its toughest challenge in years—reestablishing itself as a championship contender in an environment that no longer favors them.
As the 2025 season approaches, the question remains: has Red Bull lost its grip on Formula 1? While it would be premature to completely write them off, the signs point to a power shift on the grid. McLaren, with its relentless innovation and FIA-backed advantage, is primed to take over as the leading force in the sport. If Red Bull fails to respond effectively, Verstappen may have no choice but to consider his options, potentially accelerating the team’s decline.
The upcoming season promises to be one of the most competitive in recent history, but Red Bull must navigate through turbulent waters to remain in the fight. Whether the FIA’s decision was purely regulatory or politically motivated, the outcome is clear—2025 could be the year McLaren finally rises to the top, leaving Red Bull in unfamiliar territory: playing catch-up
