In a do-or-die situation, Croatia must rally to seize control of their fate. However, Italy possesses the savvy to thwart their efforts. The Azzurri only need a draw to secure a spot in the Round of 16, while Croatia must win and hope Albania doesn’t defeat Spain in the final group match.

A damaging stoppage-time goal against Albania has left the checkered team in a tough spot, with just one point and a goal difference of -3.

Croatia’s Struggles

Since the start of the tournament, Croatia has not displayed the defensive solidity they were known for, particularly from two years ago in Qatar. While Josko Gvardiol and Dominik Livakovic remain key players, their defensive partners have underperformed.

Croatia’s performances at Euro 2024 have been marked by a lack of defensive stability. Livakovic has had to pick the ball out of his net five times in just 180 minutes of play.

Despite attempting more shots on target compared to their Euro 2020 campaign, an aging midfield and a blunt attack have diminished their effectiveness. Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic no longer provide the backbone for the Balkan team’s gameplay, making the encounter with defending champions Italy a formidable challenge.

Italy’s Tactical Evolution

For Italy, their unbeaten streak of 10 matches in the European Championship finals recently ended with a loss to Spain, a match where they were dominantly outplayed.

Coach Luciano Spalletti is attempting to mold Italy’s playstyle after the Serie A-winning Napoli team he managed last season. This transformation requires time, and Spalletti needs to encourage more offensive play, especially against a Croatian team prone to defensive lapses.

However, Italy’s attacking personnel have yet to meet expectations. Gianluca Scamacca has struggled to make an impact as the central striker, and Federico Chiesa has not returned to his peak form from three years ago.

Historical Context

Statistics show that since gaining independence in the early 1990s, Croatia has not lost in eight consecutive matches against Italy. A closely contested draw is a likely outcome for this matchup.

Team News

Croatia: Nikola Vlasic is injured. Budimir might replace Petkovic in the attack.

Italy: Full squad available.

Predicted Lineups

Croatia: Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Perisic; Modric, Sucic, Kovacic; Pasalic, Budimir, Kramaric.

Italy: Donnarumma; Darmian, Bastoni, Calafiori, Dimarco; Cristante, Barella; Chiesa, Pellegrini, Zaccagni; Retegui.

Betting Odds

• Italy favored by 1/4 (1/4: 0)
• Over/Under 2 1/2 goals

Prediction

1-1 Draw

In this high-stakes encounter, both teams have much to play for. Croatia is desperate for a win to stay in the tournament, while Italy needs only a point to progress. The tactical acumen of Italy’s Spalletti and the resilience of Croatia will likely lead to a tightly contested match, with a draw being a probable outcome.