As Euro 2024 approaches, statistical models are weighing in on each team’s chances of claiming the championship. Utilizing data and simulation algorithms, computers have forecasted the likelihood of victory for each participating nation.
Leading the predictions is England, with the highest probability at 19.9%. This assessment seems reasonable given the formidable lineup boasting stars like Harry Kane from Bayern Munich, the Bundesliga’s top scorer, alongside talents such as Jude Bellingham, fresh from winning the Champions League with Real Madrid and La Liga’s Best Player award. With players like Phil Foden of Manchester City, England is touted to possess Europe’s most potent attacking force.
Following closely behind is France, with a 19.1% chance. The French team, featuring world-renowned striker Kylian Mbappe and Marcus Thuram, recent Serie A champion with Inter Milan, is seen as England’s primary contender.
Host nation Germany (12.4%) and Spain (9.6%) are also formidable contenders, albeit trailing behind England and France significantly.
Portugal’s team, led by Cristiano Ronaldo, enters what may be his final Euro tournament. Ronaldo holds records for most matches (25) and goals (14) in Euro history, adding intrigue to Portugal’s 7.5% championship odds.
The next highest-rated teams include the Netherlands (5.1%), Italy (5%), and Belgium (4.7%). Despite Italy’s recent success as defending champions, they lack standout names, while Belgium relies heavily on Kevin De Bruyne.
Denmark (2.2%) and Croatia (2%) round out the top ten, with Croatia’s lower rating surprising given their recent World Cup semifinal appearances and UEFA Nations League runner-up finish.
Turkey, Austria, and Switzerland each hold championship odds slightly above 1%, while Serbia, Scotland, and Ukraine have a 1% chance.
Teams from Eastern Europe such as Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Albania, and Georgia have championship odds below 1%.
With such diverse probabilities, Euro 2024 promises to be a thrilling tournament, with each team striving to defy expectations and claim European football’s ultimate prize.
